A US publisher wanted to accurately forecast home delivery circulation revenue for 2016, with periodic updates based on actual performance.
Mather Economics used historical subscription data to estimate key factors in Circulation Budget Forecasting, including: base subscriber attrition, start frequency, start retention, price sensitivity, and seasonality. Mather and the client discussed strategic plans for 2016 and how they would differ from past years to strengthen the forecast. After an initial evaluation period, Mather began updating the forecast weekly with actual data.
Through the first 5 months of 2016, Mather’s prediction of total revenue was 0.05% below actual revenue for that time. The variance was primarily due to higher than projected new start prices and fewer stops because of pricing. In June 2016, Mather updated projected revenue to reflect the observed trends in pricing and new start revenue. These forecasts were then updated weekly to account for actual performance and help the client identify important trends. By July 2016, projections showed total revenue for the year being 2.02% higher than originally projected.