Print Delivery Day Reduction Forecasting
CLIENT:
Large U.S. Newspaper
OBJECTIVE:

To complete a strategic review of print delivery day reduction modeling, validate the client’s models using our industry insights from similar projects, and develop custom subscription and advertising revenue forecasting tools.

APPROACH:
  • Completed market research to estimate impacts of COVID-19 on various markets as well as the impact of print delivery day reductions on subscription and advertising revenue.
  • Developed multipliers, based on market research, to adjust trajectory of revenue figures for subscription, advertising and dynamic pricing scenarios
RESULT:
  • For subscription revenue, delivery day cuts result in an initial spike in attrition that diminishes to pre-cut levels over the course of 6-8 weeks. A slight transitory effect of print to digital subscriptions was assumed as a product of reducing print days.
  • Mather predicts a modest drop in advertising revenue when dropping just one day, but impacts accelerate as more days are cut as fewer print days become substitutable.
  • Our revenue forecasting tools overlaid with expense estimates indicated retaining 3-5 print days would result net positive operation profit with an optimal case of retaining 4 print days.

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