By Luke Magerko, Consulting Director at Mather
July 17th, 2025
There’s growing concern across the industry that AI-generated search and content features are disrupting how people find and engage with news. One product in particular, Google’s AI Overview—is raising eyebrows for good reason. Multiple articles highlighted the significant decline in traffic for some publishers, with outlets such as HuffPost and The Washington Post experiencing more than a 50% drop in organic search traffic over the past three years (WSJ).
But the impact isn’t the same for everyone.
In this blog, we unpack what Google’s AI Overviews mean for publishers and use data to illustrate how the shift is unfolding across various types of news organizations. By analyzing traffic patterns across 50 brands, we aimed to separate signals from noise—and get a clearer view of how referral dynamics are (or aren’t) changing right now.
What Are AI Overviews?
If you’ve searched Google lately, you’ve likely noticed AI-generated summaries appearing at the top of results. These overviews pull information from multiple sources to answer questions instantly—no click required. Why Should Publishers Care? Fewer clicks to articles mean less traffic to news sites. And that can significantly impact ad revenue
How Big is This Shift?
According to SEMrush:
- In January 2025, AI Overviews appeared in 6.5% of Google searches.
- By May 2025, that number has nearly tripled but plateaued at 20%.
- In some categories, AI Overviews now show up in as many as 40% of searches.
But here’s an important detail: Longer, detailed queries are much more likely to trigger an AI Overview. In fact:
- Searches with 8+ words are 7X more likely to display an AI Overview.
- The average Google search, however, is fewer than 2 words—so in the near term, there’s still a ceiling on how widespread these summaries can become.
Are We Heading Toward More “Zero-Click” Searches?
It’s already happening. Even before AI Overviews, about one third of Google searches ended without anyone clicking a link.
But with AI Overviews in play:
- Nearly half of searches end without a click.
- That’s a roughly 10-point jump in no-click behavior, and a trend publishers can’t afford to ignore.
What the Traffic Data Tells Us
To understand the real impact, Mather analyzed traffic patterns across multiple top-tier brands. Here’s what we learned:
Organic Search Declines Mirror Broader Channel Trends
An analysis of traffic across top-performing news brands reveals that organic search is not declining at a significantly faster rate than most other referral channels.
The primary exception is direct traffic, which has remained more resilient in comparison. Notably, some of the 2025 declines in organic search may be a correction following substantial gains observed in 2024.
Context: We concur with Greg Piechota of INMA, who suggests, “recent U.S. traffic declines could be explained by a slower news cycle, compared to 2024’s presidential elections, Olympics, and other major events.”
June Update:
Visitors slightly improved in June 2025 across all channels for top brands.
Smaller Publishers Face a Bigger Risk
We extended our analysis to larger and smaller brands. Unlike their larger counterparts, smaller news outlets are at a greater risk of losing traffic as AI-generated news becomes more common.
Why?
- Their traffic depends more heavily on organic search.
- Alternative channels such as email and paid campaigns tend to be less mature or underutilized.
- And the type of content they produce—local crime, politics, and community updates—is exactly the kind of information AI Overviews are designed to summarize.
What Comes Next
While AI Overviews is showing a decline that aligns with other channels, the landscape is shifting, and smaller outlets may already be feeling the impact. At Mather, we’ll continue to closely monitor these patterns and explore their implications for acquisition, retention, and long-term audience strategy.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights.
In the meantime, if you have questions or want to explore what this could mean for your brand, feel free to reach out to me at lmagerko@mathereconomics.com for a complimentary brand performance diagnostic.
